Reaction Stations

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What's going on?

Every action has an equal and opposite reaction, and this ones a doozy: investment bank Credit Suisse revealed a $4.7 billion loss following the blow-up of Archegos Capital Management.

What does this mean?

If the name Archegos rings a bell, its because the investment firm hit the headlines last week after dumping its holdings to cover losses from a few ill-advised bets. And since the company had been paying for them by borrowing heavily from the worlds banks, those same banks could now be facing $10 billion worth of losses almost half of which has fallen on Credit Suisses shoulders.

Thats expected to push the firm to a $1 billion loss last quarter, and could help explain why its trying to preserve its cash by cutting its dividend and freezing share buybacks. And considering this is the second time in the last few months that the banks short-sighted lending has led to big losses, the firm announced its replacing the heads of its risk and investment banking departments too. Go figure.

Why should I care?

For markets: Watch for banks earnings later this month.
Credit Suisse wont be the only bank with an Archegos-shaped stain on its balance sheet, but at least the sectors had a strong quarter otherwise. Banks trading departments have benefited big from market volatility and record trading volumes, while their investment banking segments have done brisk business from a record number of mergers and acquisitions. Exactly how brisk will become clearer when they report earnings later this month

The bigger picture: Interest rates take with one hand, give with the other.
Investors mightve been spooked by rising long-term bond yields last quarter, but banks were much more upbeat about them. See, short-term bond yields stayed relatively flat, and since banks borrow money at short-term rates and lend money at long-term rates, a wider gap between the two means banks were able to pocket more profit (tweet this).

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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