When Russia Acts, The Euro Falls

Image source: Volodymyr Burdiak - Shutterstock

What's going on?

The euro dropped to its lowest in 20 years against the US dollar on Monday, after Russia shut off the gas.

What does this mean?

Russias been slimming the Nord Streams capacity in recent months, and it went a step further on Friday: the country announced that a technical fault will keep the key gas pipeline between Russia and Europe shut indefinitely. Suspect timing, cynics say, as the shut-off came only hours after the G7 confirmed price caps on exported Russian oil.

Those extremely well-founded conspiracy theoriesaside, the shutdown sent European gas prices up over 30% on Monday, worsening an energy crisis thats already hampering the regions economy. Some economists even think the European Central Bank (ECB) might opt for lower-than-expected rate hikes in a desperate bid to limit the damage. Layer on the ever-mounting risk of a recession, and that might be why the euro dropped to below $0.99 for the first time since 2002.

Why should I care?

The bigger picture: The Fed has it easy.
The ECB, in fairness, probably has a tougher job than the Federal Reserve (the Fed): inflations sitting at a similar rate in the US, sure, but Europes is more driven by a short supply of things like energy while high demand plays a relatively bigger part in America’s. That means the Fed can count on interest rate rises which typically dent demand more than the ECB can. Not to mention the Fed doesnt have the impossible task of setting one interest rate across different economies with very different needs.

Zooming out: Lightning fast.
Europe was quick to roll out support after the shutdown: Germany unveiled a consumer relief plan worth $65 billion, while Finland and Sweden introduced new funding to bolster struggling utility companies. That wont be the end of it either, since the European Commissions set to meet at the end of this week to discuss more special energy cost-cutting measures.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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