What's going on?

Data out on Friday showed UK retail sales rose for the first time in six months in October, as Christmas shopping for the kids makes child�s play of the country�s recovery.

What does this mean?

You know what they say: �tis the season to get the jump on supply shortages and shipping delays. And Brits are certainly getting in the spirit, sweeping clothing and toys into their carts so they�re not faced with empty shelves nearer the holidays. That drove UK retail sales up by a better-than-expected 0.8% last month compared to September, on the heels of five months of either no growth or shrinkage � the country�s longest spending slump since 1996. Even better, Christmas shoppers were a-shopping despite pricier products, with recent data showing that UK inflation hit its highest in nearly a decade last month.

Why should I care?

For markets: Rate hikes, please.
Friday�s data will come as a relief to the Bank of England (BoE), which said earlier this month that it was worried consumer spending was slowing down. Add in last week�s strong jobs report, and the BoE should be more confident that the UK economy can handle any of its inflation-fighting measures � like, say, a much-anticipated interest rate hike. That news wouldn�t be welcomed by everyone: the UK government would have to pay more interest on any new bonds it issues, when fresh data showed that the interest it paid in October was already over three times higher than a year ago.

The bigger picture: Will lockdowns ruin the party?
Let�s not jump the gun: coronavirus cases are still high in the UK, meaning another economy-damaging national lockdown is a distinct possibility. That�s already happened in Austria � which announced its fourth last week � and Germany�s not ruling anything out either. That would be seriously problematic for Britain: its last national lockdown in January saw retail sales slump 8.2% from the month before.