Chinese Trade Junked

China's international trade declines

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What's going on?

Data out late Sunday showed Chinas international trade declining piling pressure on the country to explore further economy-boosting measures.

What does this mean?

Chinese overseas exports in August were 1% lower than a year before when measured in US dollars especially significant as foreign companies were supposedly racing to receive shipments before new US trade taxes kicked in. Indeed, American exports were worth 16% less than last Augusts.

In order to meet its 6% economic growth target this year, the Chinese government may be forced to explore yet more stimulus measures. An interest rate cut is one option: thatd see it following in the footsteps of not just the USA but also fellow BRICS member India, where annual economic growth has slowed to 5%. A full-throttle collapse in auto sales is the latest symptom of the Indian slowdown, putting millions of jobs at risk. Nissans CEO doesnt have to worry, however: he stepped down on Monday following another pay scandal compounding the Japanese carmakers worst year in over a decade.

Why should I care?

For markets: Dont believe everything you read just Finimize ?
Earlier this year, controversy erupted in India around the collection and subsequent revision of economic growth data and many companies are now questioning the reliability of Chinas figures too. With official data closely controlled (and potentially massaged) by the government, savvy investors are increasingly focused on alternative gauges of the strength of Chinas economy.

The bigger picture: Australia is firing up the grill.
The US-China trade war has been bonzer for at least one country: Australia. More economy-boosting construction activity in China has seen an increase in shipments of Australian commodities like iron ore leading the country to clock up its first current account surplus since 1975 in the second quarter of 2019. Still, things may have peaked and fears of a sharper economic slowdown in China (and elsewhere) may soon prompt Australias central bank to cut interest rates again.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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